7 November 2025 - Somalia’s political landscape is no longer shaped by national consensus but by a tangle of external ambitions. The country’s federal and state structures, once designed to balance representation and autonomy, have become vulnerable to the competing interests of its neighbors and allies. What was meant to heal internal divisions has instead opened the door to foreign designs.
Somalia’s sovereignty survives in form but falters in substance. From Mogadishu to Garowe and Kismayo, each tier of government has found itself aligned, willingly or not, with a different set of foreign patrons. These relationships are presented as partnerships for development, security, or investment. Yet in practice, they have deepened dependency, eroding the coherence of Somali politics and weakening the country’s capacity to act as one.
Across the Horn of Africa, Somalia has become a stage where powerful states play out their rivalries. The United Arab Emirates exerts influence through ports and logistics, from Berbera to Bosaso and Kismayo — shaping local politics through financial leverage and elite ties.
Türkiye’s presence is concentrated in Mogadishu, where it trains troops, manages key infrastructure, and provides diplomatic cover that reinforces the federal center. Ethiopia, balancing both cooperation and competition, maintains reach across Puntland, South West State, and Jubbaland while cultivating influence within federal circles. Kenya, though less expansive, keeps a decisive hand in Jubbaland, seeing it as both a security buffer and an economic frontier.
Together, these actors have turned Somalia into a geopolitical chessboard. Their overlapping interests seldom complement one another. Instead, they collide — pushing Somali leaders to juggle allegiances that serve survival more than strategy. The consequence is paralysis: a political system in motion but without direction.
Federal–state disputes persist not only because of constitutional gaps but because external backers empower competing agendas. The more Somalia tries to rebuild from within, the more it risks being pulled apart from without.
This web of foreign influence has dulled the emergence of a shared national vision. Somali politicians, long accustomed to navigating external alliances, now operate in a space where regional loyalty and foreign alignment often count more than public service or institutional reform. The price is a slow suffocation of self-determination.
Breaking free from this entanglement requires more than speeches about sovereignty. It demands a reset in foreign relations, one grounded in transparency, accountability, and equality. Somalia needs partners, not patrons; cooperation, not control. Its leaders must also restore cohesion at home: a unified security strategy, fair resource sharing, and institutions that rise above political manipulation. These are not mere ideals but conditions for genuine independence.
Somalia’s future will hinge on whether it can reclaim the substance of sovereignty, not just its symbol. So long as politics remain tied to external interests, unity will be fragile and self-governance incomplete. To cut through the web of foreign strings, Somalia must once again learn to speak with one voice — not one echoed from abroad, but one born from within.
The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa
