By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
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Somalia, October 26, 2026 - For a young Somali entering the labour market, economic growth means little if there is no job at the end of the journey.
That is the difficult reality behind Somalia's public finance debate: the country needs more revenue and better spending, but it also needs an economy capable of turning those reforms into opportunities for the hundreds of thousands of young people seeking livelihoods.
The World Bank's Somalia Public Finance Review: The Next Stage of Public Finance estimates that a package of proposed reforms could generate about 54,000 new jobs and 250,000 better and more productive jobs by 2033.
But the figures come with an important qualification.
“These are simulations, not automatic outcomes,” World Bank Senior Economist Stella Ilieva told journalists during a pre-launch briefing.
She explained that the modelling assumes the proposed reforms are implemented and sustained over time.
The distinction is important for a country where the demand for work is growing faster than the formal economy's ability to absorb new workers.
Ilieva said the World Bank's analysis found that Somalia needs about 100,000 jobs every year simply to maintain its current level of employment, meaning the 54,000 new jobs projected under the reform scenario would not, on their own, close the country's employment gap.
The larger opportunity, according to the analysis, is productivity.
The projected 250,000 better and more productive jobs represent the possibility of moving workers into higher-value activities as reforms improve the wider economy.
“This other 250,000 jobs this is more a result of these reforms, Somalia will be able to move to more high value added jobs,” Ilieva said.
That raises a question that extends beyond Somalia's public accounts: what does it take to turn economic reform into jobs that young people can actually access?
Across the East African Community, Rwanda provides an example of how skills policy can be connected more deliberately to the labour market.
A World Bank-supported Priority Skills for Growth programme in Rwanda trained nearly 24,000 young people and workers between 2017 and 2024. According to the World Bank, 82% of participants were employed or self-employed nine months after training.
The programme did not rely solely on classroom training. Employers participated in designing courses, while training was directed towards sectors identified as having growth potential, including energy, transport and logistics and agro-processing.
The Rwandan experience is not evidence that Somalia can simply copy another country's model. Rwanda still faces substantial youth employment challenges, with more than one million young people aged 16–30 reported as being outside education, employment or training in 2024.
But it offers a potentially useful lesson for Somalia: skills programmes become more valuable when employers help determine what young people are trained to do and when outcomes are measured after graduation.
That distinction could become increasingly important as Somalia looks beyond simply creating jobs to creating jobs that raise household incomes and productivity.
The broader East African experience also shows why the quality of growth matters.
The African Development Bank estimates that East Africa remained one of Africa's fastest-growing regions in 2025, with growth estimated at 6.6%, supported by consumption, investment, agriculture and services. Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia were among the stronger performers.
Yet the Bank cautions that structural transformation remains limited and that the region continues to face constraints in industrialisation, fiscal space and long-term development finance.
The World Bank's September 2026 Tanzania Economic Update says the country's economy expanded by 5.9% in 2025, with services such as finance, trade and transport contributing strongly to growth. But the country still faces a major challenge in converting that growth into formal employment.
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The World Bank estimates that Tanzania has about 4 million formal-sector jobs, while roughly 2 million people reach working age every year. In 2023/24, only about 156,000 new formal-sector jobs were created, with 54.9% of those new jobs in the public sector.
The lesson for Somalia is therefore not simply to chase a higher GDP growth rate.
It is to ask whether growth is creating opportunities in sectors where young people can enter, acquire experience, increase their productivity and eventually build sustainable livelihoods.
The World Bank's Somalia review identifies several areas where better public finances could support that transition.
The report links fiscal reform to improved investment in education, health, infrastructure and other public services, while also proposing reforms to broaden domestic revenue, improve spending efficiency and strengthen institutions.
Ilieva said the World Bank's analysis considered sectors with potential for higher-value employment, including fisheries, construction, agriculture and agribusiness. She noted that another report being prepared by the World Bank would provide a broader assessment of where Somalia's future jobs could come from.
That could be particularly important for young Somalis who are unlikely to enter the labour market through conventional government employment.
The PFR itself acknowledges that improving public finances is not only about balancing budgets.
“The key point is that public finance reform is not only about budgets and accounting,” Ilieva said in presenting the report. She linked stronger public finances to growth, employment, poverty reduction and better opportunities for citizens.
For Somalia's young population, that connection will ultimately be tested outside government balance sheets.
A young person trained in construction will want to know whether construction companies are hiring. A graduate in agriculture will need access to markets, finance, infrastructure and technology. A young entrepreneur will need customers and a business environment that allows a small enterprise to survive and grow.
The government can improve revenue collection and public financial management, but the resulting resources must help create the conditions in which the private sector can expand and absorb workers.
Somalia's public finance transition comes at a difficult moment.
External grants that have helped support the country's fiscal system are expected to decline substantially, while demands for security, infrastructure, human development and climate resilience remain high. The World Bank therefore argues that Somalia needs to build a stronger domestic revenue base while making every dollar of public spending deliver greater value.
For young Somalis, the measure of success may be much simpler.
Can the reforms help create a labour market where a young person does not merely find something to do, but can build a productive career, earn a decent income and eventually create work for others?
Rwanda's experience suggests that one part of the answer may lie in bringing employers closer to training institutions and measuring whether skills actually translate into work.
Somalia's own reform agenda will need to find its own path.
But as the country moves towards financing more of its development from domestic resources, the most important return on those reforms may not be another figure in a government budget.
It may be a young Somali who can finally turn a skill into a job, and a job into a livelihood.