Somalia in U.S. Strategy: A Hidden Keystone Shaping Horn and Red Sea Politics

The United States’ National Security Strategy, released in November 2025, reveals a profound shift in how Washington views the world—especially the Middle East and Africa. While the document does not explicitly present Somalia as a central actor, it effectively positions the country at the heart of several overlapping strategic spheres that the United States cannot ignore.

What makes Somalia particularly significant—and places it at the intersection of U.S. regional strategies in both the Middle East and Africa—is its unique dual identity: African by geography and continental affiliation, and Arab-Islamic by culture, history, and linguistic ties.

This dual belonging situates Somalia within two strategic theaters where Washington operates differently yet pursues interlinked objectives. Somalia, therefore, becomes a space in which U.S. priorities across these two regions naturally converge, whether in securing the Red Sea, countering terrorism, balancing international competitors, or expanding the Abraham Accords.

According to the strategy, the U.S. is moving away from the heavy-handed interventions that defined its post-9/11 foreign policy, toward a lighter, more agile approach built on low-cost economic and security partnerships.

 The document emphasizes a shift in Africa from aid-driven relationships to trade and investment, while also avoiding any prolonged military presence. For Somalia, this marks a clear realignment: Washington no longer views the country as a state-building mission but as an arena for risk management—containing terrorism, securing maritime routes, and countering the influence of global rivals.

At the same time, Somalia’s critical geographic position gives Washington precisely what it needs at a moment when the architecture of power across the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean is being reconfigured. With one of the longest coastlines in Africa, Somalia controls maritime access points from the Gulf to the Suez Canal, making it indispensable to any power seeking influence over regional security and trade.

Somalia’s Arab-Islamic dimension is as important as its African one. It is a member of the Arab League, deeply interconnected with Arabian Peninsula, and historically tied to the broader Islamic world. This makes Somalia a natural part of any U.S. effort to reshape the Middle East or expand the Abraham Accords to new Arab and Muslim states—even if Washington does not expect Mogadishu to normalize relations with Israel in the near term.

 Normalization today is no longer merely a political act; it has evolved into a geo-economic-security system involving energy, ports, maritime corridors, and defense technology. Somalia, by virtue of its geography and cultural identity, is inevitably linked to this emerging architecture, whether or not it formally participates in the political aspects of normalization.

The strategy also underscores the enduring importance of Red Sea security and the need to prevent hostile powers from gaining control over its vital maritime routes. This places Somalia squarely within U.S. strategic calculations. Its position along the Gulf of Aden, the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the Indian Ocean makes Somalia a critical piece of maritime security. The stability of Somalia is directly tied to the stability of the Red Sea—and vice versa. This explains Washington’s growing interest in bolstering Somalia’s coast guard capabilities, supporting multinational maritime cooperation, and encouraging its integration—implicitly rather than overtly—into emerging regional security frameworks that parallel the economic and security structures being built under the umbrella of the Abraham Accords.

The strategy further stresses the need to prevent new conflicts in the Horn of Africa, explicitly noting the potential for tensions between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia. This reference is not incidental. It reflects a U.S. perception that views the Horn of Africa as an extension of Middle Eastern security, where any disruption can jeopardize Red Sea navigation and derail the energy and trade projects Washington deems essential in its competition with China, Turkey, and Iran. Once again, Somalia’s dual identity—as both an African and an Arab-Islamic state—becomes a strategic asset for Washington, enabling the U.S. to manage the balance of power across these interconnected regions.