By Asha Elmi - Reporter
Mogadishu, 1 September 2026 - Somalia could receive more than 400 mm of rainfall in some areas during the October-December Deyr rainy season, raising the risk of flooding across parts of the country, Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) said on Tuesday.
Seasonal forecasts indicate that central and southern Somalia are likely to receive above-average rainfall during the Deyr season. Anticipated El Niño conditions, together with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, are expected to increase the likelihood of prolonged heavy rainfall, riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers, and flash floods in vulnerable urban and rural areas.
The expected rains could improve water availability, pasture regeneration, agricultural production and livestock conditions, but SoDMA warned they also pose risks of flooding, displacement, loss of lives, infrastructure damage, destruction of crops and livestock, disease outbreaks and disruption of essential services.
SoDMA has issued an initial national El Niño alert and activated national coordination mechanisms as it steps up preparedness ahead of the rainy season.
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The agency has also launched public early-warning and risk communication campaigns and engaged federal member states and humanitarian partners in preparedness planning.
SoDMA called on government institutions, humanitarian organisations, development partners, the private sector, civil society and local communities to strengthen contingency planning, pre-position emergency supplies, reinforce evacuation arrangements and closely monitor weather and river conditions.
The agency said it would continue working with government ministries, federal member states, humanitarian partners and local authorities to monitor changing climate conditions and provide regular early-warning updates throughout the Deyr season.