By Abdullahi Salad - Reporter
MOGADISHU, 8 October 2026 – The Shabelle River at Jowhar has risen rapidly and is now just 30 centimetres below the moderate flood-risk level, according to the weekly forecast issued by SWALIM on Thursday, a project of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
According to the forecast, the river level at Jowhar rose by 2.22 metres to reach 4.70 metres. FAO SWALIM said Jowhar is likely to reach the moderate flood-risk level this week.
The forecast added that river levels at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti are expected to rise significantly. At Belet Weyne and Dollow, levels began rising on Wednesday, October 7, after several days of decline.
FAO SWALIM said heavy rain is expected in the Ethiopian highlands where the Shabelle and Juba rivers begin, generally 50 to 100 millimetres or more. The rain will increase the flow into both rivers.
The forecast said flood risk along the Juba River remains low but is rising.
Moderate to very heavy rain is expected across much of northern and central Somalia, as well as in Bay, Bakool and Hiraan. Rainfall is expected to reach 50 to 150 millimetres in most areas, with some places receiving more than 150 to 200 millimetres.
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FAO SWALIM warned that very heavy rain could cause flash floods and urban flooding, particularly in parts of the north, Bay and Hiraan.
According to the forecast, the Deyr rains started early in parts of Gedo, Bay and Mudug. Bardheere received 93 millimetres and Galkayo 50 millimetres. Both exceeded their average rainfall for the whole of October within the first five days.
However, the rain was uneven. The Juba Valley, Lower Juba and coastal Lower Shabelle remained largely dry.
The forecast said the rain should ease drought across much of the north and centre. Water shortages are expected to persist along the Awdal coast and in Bu’aale, Sablaale and Afmadow, where little rain is forecast.
FAO SWALIM also said temperatures of 35 to 40 degrees Celsius and dry conditions will persist in parts of southern Somalia.
Some communities in Galgaduud, Mudug, Sanaag and Sool continue to report water shortages and livestock deaths, although conditions have improved in some areas, the forecast noted.
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