By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, 5 November 2025 - Safaricom Plc, Kenya’s largest telecommunications company, is on course for a strong financial rebound in FY26, with projected earnings rising to between KSh 144 billion and KSh 150 billion, according to new estimates by AXYS Group and analysts tracking the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE). The optimism stems from a resurgence in M-Pesa transactions, data growth,and regional expansion.
“Safaricom’s fundamentals remain solid, mobile money, enterprise solutions, and 5G deployment continue to push margins higher,” said AXYS Group Head of Research Edward Muriu in a note to investors. The company is also expected to see “a turnaround in its Ethiopian operations, which should break even by 2026,” according to Renaissance Capital Africa’s latest telecom sector outlook.
What’s happening
After a mixed FY25 marked by network expansion costs in Ethiopia and forex volatility, Safaricom is now reaping the benefits of its regional and infrastructure bets. In the six months to September 2025, M-Pesa revenue grew 15% to KSh 72.3 billion, accounting for over 40% of total service revenue, while mobile data surged 13%.
The company’s aggressive rollout of 5G sites (now over 750 nationwide), coupled with growth in enterprise cloud services and mobile lending partnerships, is expected to drive the next earnings cycle. Safaricom’s CEO Peter Ndegwa recently said the firm was “entering a new era of intelligent connectivity, from finance to education to health, with M-Pesa as the ecosystem anchor.”
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Why this matters
Safaricom’s growth trajectory is crucial for Kenya’s economy. The telco accounts for nearly 5% of national GDP and remains the largest corporate taxpayer in East Africa. A profit expansion toward KSh 150 billion would reinforce market confidence at the NSE, where Safaricom shares make up roughly 40% of total market capitalisation.
Analysts say strong earnings could also ease investor anxiety over regional exposure, particularly in Ethiopia, where telecom competition and political risk have weighed on forecasts. “If Safaricom’s Ethiopian unit turns profitable by FY26, it could add as much as KSh 20 billion to the bottom line,”
The future and what to watch
- Ethiopia’s Break-even Race: Safaricom Ethiopia’s 9 million subscribers are expected to double in 18 months. Profitability there could redefine the telco’s regional strategy.
- M-Pesa Ecosystem Deepening: The company plans new products in savings, SME lending, and insurance, aligning with Central Bank of Kenya’s digital-finance guidelines.
- AI-driven Customer Service: Safaricom is testing AI chatbots for customer care and data analytics for fraud reduction, following global telco trends.
- Investor Returns: Dividend payout ratios may rise if cash flow from Ethiopia stabilises. Investors are watching for a potential 10–15% increase in FY26 dividends.
Safaricom’s projected KSh 150 billion profit cements its position as a tech-finance hybrid, not just a telecom operator. Its next challenge lies in balancing aggressive expansion with sustainable returns, ensuring M-Pesa’s ecosystem continues to empower individuals and enterprises across East Africa.
