By Kepher Otieno - Reporter
Kenya, 23 August 2026 - President William Ruto’s bid for a second term is acquiring a distinctly Nyanza political flavour, with leaders from his UDA establishment and allies in the Broad-Based Government stepping up efforts to persuade a region long associated with opposition politics to embrace his 2027 re-election campaign.
As he criss-crosses the country, Nyanza appears to be a soft landing. On Saturday he was in Ukambani, and on Sunday he is in Taita Taveta. Yet it is in the Lakeside region that key political leaders and government officials have intensified his second-term bid.
From Migori to Homa Bay and Siaya, the weekend was awash with political activity, as senior leaders returned to their political home turf to sell what they increasingly portray as a new political bargain: that Nyanza need not remain in opposition when it can negotiate power and development from within government.
The emerging chorus is particularly significant because it is no longer being driven exclusively by Ruto’s traditional political allies. It now includes senior ODM figures who are part of the Broad-Based Government and who argue that supporting Ruto does not amount to abandoning ODM’s interests, but rather positioning the party for a more consequential role in government.
In Bondo, ODM leader Dr Oburu Oginga offered perhaps the clearest articulation of the emerging political calculation.
Oburu said ODM remained firmly inside the Broad-Based Government arrangement and would support Ruto’s two-term agenda, even as the party negotiates for a larger share of power.
“We are in the Broad-Based Government and we support Ruto for two terms,” Oburu said.
“We will not be distracted in this course. We are firm and we know what we want. We have repeatedly said that what we want is power, because without power everything else becomes a zero-sum game.”
His message captures the delicate balancing act at the heart of the emerging Ruto-ODM relationship.
ODM is backing the President while simultaneously negotiating the terms of its partnership with UDA. The party's argument is that its national footprint and mass following entitle it to an equal stake in the political arrangement.
Oburu said discussions between the two sides were progressing and expressed optimism that they would eventually produce an agreement capable of binding the two parties together ahead of 2027.
“We are having discussions with UDA and the talks are advancing well,” he said.
“We believe these discussions will resolve a number of issues that will bind us together.”
Among the issues under consideration, he said, are government appointments, political power-sharing and the possibility of zoning electoral areas where either ODM or UDA enjoys overwhelming support.
The zoning question, however, remains one of the most politically sensitive elements of the emerging alliance.
Oburu argued that political alliances sometimes require compromises that may not be popular with individual aspirants but can serve the broader interests of the coalition.
“Democracy sometimes follows the guidance route,” he said. “It is a practice around the world. There is nothing sinister about Kenya exploring such democratic decisions as long as they are done for the common good.”
For ODM, the logic is straightforward: if the two parties intend to govern together, there would be little strategic sense in allowing them to tear each other apart in constituencies and counties where one side has a dominant support base.
Oburu questioned why UDA and ODM would deliberately field rival candidates for the same position in areas where one party is clearly stronger.
“Why should ODM and UDA field candidates against each other in one electoral zone?” he asked.
“Take a governor's seat in Homa Bay or Kisumu. If ODM and UDA both field candidates, ODM versus UDA, what political sense would that make if we are coalition partners?”
The argument, however, has already generated opposition within the wider political establishment.
PPP party leader Eliud Owalo has warned that zoning could undermine democratic competition and produce what he described as democratic regression.
Owalo favours open contests in which aspirants are allowed to compete freely for party nominations and ultimately face voters without predetermined political arrangements.
The debate reflects one of the biggest contradictions facing the emerging UDA-ODM alliance: the desire for political stability and coalition discipline versus the demand for competitive democracy.
Kenya's political history offers enough evidence to make the concern legitimate. Zoning and negotiated nominations have previously triggered protests, defections and rebellion by aspirants who felt locked out of contests.
Yet from the perspective of the two parties, uncontrolled competition could be equally dangerous. A coalition that fields multiple candidates against itself risks dividing its vote and handing victory to opponents.
That tension will likely define many of the negotiations between now and the 2027 election.
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For Ruto, meanwhile, the growing support from Nyanza represents an important political shift.
Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi was unequivocal in Siaya, calling on the Luo community and Kenyans generally to give Ruto another term.
Wandayi framed the argument not merely as a question of supporting an individual president but as a strategic choice for a community that, in his view, has spent too long in opposition.
“The Luo community has suffered for a long time,” Wandayi said.
“There is no reason for us to retreat to the opposition and slide back into the political cold.”
His rallying cry was blunt: “For us, it is Ruto tano tena and there is no turning back.”
The message closely mirrors that of Interior Principal Secretary Dr Raymond Omollo, who has emerged as one of the more consistent advocates of the Ruto second-term project in Nyanza.
Omollo has sought to shift the political conversation away from traditional opposition-versus-government rhetoric towards development, patriotism and constructive engagement.
He has urged Kenyans to support Ruto for two terms, arguing that the President has a clear development agenda and a vision for transforming the country.
“The President means well for all Kenyans,” Omollo has said, insisting that Ruto's development agenda is national rather than discriminatory.
But Omollo's pitch goes beyond electoral mobilisation. He has challenged Kenyans to abandon what he sees as excessive negativity about the country and replace political rhetoric with constructive criticism.
His message is that citizens should not merely complain about government but also propose practical solutions to the socio-economic and political challenges confronting the country.
That argument is central to the Ruto establishment's emerging narrative: that the 2027 election should be a referendum on continuity, development and the President's ability to complete his agenda rather than a return to the political divisions of the past.
The same message travelled to Migori, where Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya and Suna West MP Dr Peter Masara openly campaigned for Ruto's second term.
Their intervention further demonstrated how deeply the President's re-election campaign has penetrated ODM territory.
For Oparanya, a veteran ODM figure and former Kakamega governor, the embrace of Ruto carries particular political significance. His presence in Migori alongside Masara underscored the growing number of former opposition figures now willing to publicly sell the President's agenda.
The political mathematics are becoming increasingly clear.
UDA wants ODM's organisational strength and grassroots networks. ODM wants access to power and a meaningful share of government. Ruto wants to consolidate a national coalition capable of neutralising the traditional opposition strongholds that have historically challenged his political base.
The two parties remain among Kenya's most formidable political formations, even as the wider opposition struggles to transform its calls for unity into a coherent national machine.
The emerging UDA-ODM partnership therefore represents more than an ordinary pre-election alliance. It is an attempt to redraw Kenya's political map before voters even enter the polling booth.
For Nyanza, the stakes are particularly high.
The region is being asked to make a historic choice: remain anchored in its traditional opposition politics or embrace a negotiated role inside the establishment.
Oburu's position suggests ODM has already made the first step towards the latter.
“We know what we want,” he said. “We want power.”
And with Ruto's two-term bid now being openly marketed across Nyanza, the political question is increasingly shifting from whether the region will engage the establishment to how much power it can negotiate from that engagement.
Ruto’s 2027 Two-Term Bid Finds a New Political Engine in Nyanza
UDA-ODM partnership is an attempt to redraw Kenya's political map before voters even enter the polling booth.