By Kepher Otieno - Senior journalist based in Kenya and a regular advocate for democracy and good governance.
"If Uhuru is indeed looking beyond Gachagua, then the former Deputy President's greatest challenge may no longer be defeating Ruto." - Kepher Otieno
Sometimes what a politician does not say speaks louder than what he says.
That may have been the most striking feature of former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s appearance at the recent commemoration of the late Vice-President Michael Kijana Wamalwa in Kitale.
Uhuru spoke about the 2027 political contest. He mentioned several presidential hopefuls. He reminded Kenyans that the sovereign power to choose their leaders belongs to them.
But conspicuously absent from his roll call was former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Was it deliberate?
Or was it merely an omission?
Either way, the silence has generated political questions.
Gachagua has, in recent months, gone out of his way to rehabilitate his relationship with Uhuru. This is particularly striking given his earlier years in government, when he made unkind remarks about the former President and was later reported to have apologised.
Since leaving office, however, Gachagua has transformed himself into one of Uhuru’s most persistent political admirers.
He has repeatedly praised the former President. He has described him as the undisputed Mt Kenya kingpin. He has defended his legacy.
That strategy may have been more than political courtesy.
It was, arguably, an attempt to inherit legitimacy from the Kenyatta dynasty.
For generations, Mt Kenya politics has been heavily influenced by the Jomo Kenyatta political inheritance. Uhuru became its most powerful modern custodian.
For Gachagua, therefore, praising Uhuru could not simply be dismissed as political flattery.
It was a humble pie strategy.
He needed to win over a constituency that had long associated political legitimacy with the Kenyatta name.
And, to some extent, it appears to have worked.
The clearest signal came from the Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party performance in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election.
What was ostensibly a local contest quickly acquired national political meaning.
The DCP victory was interpreted by many as evidence that Gachagua could mobilise voters in the very backyard where the Kenyatta political machine had traditionally exercised enormous influence.
The mountain had been shaken.
The symbolism was difficult to ignore.
Gachagua was no longer merely the former Deputy President seeking political relevance. He was increasingly presenting himself as a potential alternative centre of power in Central Kenya.
That is where the interests of the former deputy president and the Kenyatta dynasty could begin to collide.
Gachagua's repeated declaration that Uhuru remains the Mt Kenya kingpin may have been intended to honour the former President.
But political power is ultimately about succession.
If Gachagua is gradually becoming the man capable of mobilising the same voters who once looked to Uhuru, the compliment can acquire an unintended meaning.
It can become a declaration of succession.
The Ol Kalou outcome consequently became more than a by-election result. It became a test of political inheritance.
The DCP's showing against parties associated with the ruling coalition, and its ability to turn a parliamentary contest into a national political spectacle, gave Gachagua fresh confidence.
It also gave prospective defectors a reason to look his way.
A party that previously appeared peripheral suddenly looked like a possible vehicle for the 2027 realignment.
That could explain why political aspirants who had struggled to break away from UDA began increasingly looking towards DCP.
Yet there is another complication.
Uhuru may not be interested in anointing a successor.
In Kitale, he appeared determined to place the decision back in the hands of voters.
Kalonzo Musyoka. Fred Matiang’i. Edwin Sifuna. Others.
The message was simple: Kenya belongs to Kenyans, and the ballot belongs to the people.
But the omission of Gachagua was anything but simple.
Gachagua is already positioning himself as a national presidential player. His supporters have presented him as the emerging alternative from Mt Kenya.
Yet his political ambitions face legal and constitutional questions that could affect his ability to seek the presidency. Until those questions are conclusively settled, backing him for the highest office would carry political uncertainty.
Maybe it's the reason again why Kiharu MP Dindi Nyoro has reportedly stepped in with his new found people centric party - the People's party of Kenya? Who knows the underlying interest and political calculations and implications? Time Will tell. It's a strategic plan in the offing by deductive logic which could rival DCP and other mainstream political parties with new marxim on macro economic transformation policies and political power agenda in the run up to 2027 General Elections. Who is the messiah for my Kenya and rest of Kenya between DCP, PPK and Jubilee in the Presidential succession realm?
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For Uhuru, that creates an obvious dilemma.
Why invest political capital in a candidate whose path to the ballot may remain uncertain?
The alternative is to look beyond Mt Kenya to shed off tribal tags to think beyond ' I and opt for the 'We' slogan. The ' I' in the case being the Agikuyu community and the 'We' representing other Kenyan community interests and voters who as the latter aptly puts it's it hold sway to the ballot decisions.
That is where names such as Kalonzo and Matiang’i become politically significant.
Matiang’i, in particular, has been associated with the Jubilee political establishment and has attracted support from sections of the party leadership as a potential presidential contender.
Kalonzo offers another possibility: a long-established opposition figure with national political networks and experience in presidential contests.
But Uhuru insists he is not a kingmaker.
That assertion deserves scrutiny.
A former President of his stature does not need to formally endorse anyone to influence an election.
Silence can influence.
Presence can influence.
A meeting can influence.
A photograph can influence.
And, sometimes, an omission can influence even more.
This is why the Kitale episode matters.
Uhuru may genuinely be withdrawing from active succession politics. He may genuinely believe that Kenyans should make the final decision.
Or he may be recalibrating quietly.
The distinction is important.
President William Ruto and his allies have repeatedly accused Uhuru of remaining politically active and seeking to undermine the Kenya Kwanza administration through opposition networks.
Uhuru has rejected such interpretations and has insisted that Kenyans must take responsibility for their political choices.
But 2027 is approaching.
The opposition remains fragmented.
Mt Kenya remains politically fluid.
Gachagua is building DCP.
Jubilee is searching for relevance.
UDA is defending its hold on power.
And the old political dynasties are discovering that influence cannot simply be inherited.
The most fascinating question, therefore, may not be whether Uhuru deliberately snubbed Gachagua in Kitale.
It is what the silence represents.
If Uhuru is indeed looking beyond Gachagua, then the former Deputy President's greatest challenge may no longer be defeating Ruto.
It may be convincing the Kenyatta political establishment that he is its legitimate successor rather than its replacement.
That is a much harder battle.
Because Gachagua may have spent months praising the king.
But political history teaches a brutal lesson.
The moment an heir becomes powerful enough, the king starts wondering whether he is looking at a successor — or a usurper.
The mountain is watching.
So is Uhuru.
And so, increasingly, is Kenya.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Kenya, consulting editor and a regular advocate for democracy and good governance in Africa. kepher43@gmail.com
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The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.