For the past few years, Somalia’s government and international partners have proudly announced positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
Reports often highlight figures such as a 2.74 per cent or 4.2 per cent annual increase, portraying the country as an emerging success story in the Horn of Africa. But behind the numbers lies a painful truth — this is growth without jobs, prosperity without productivity, and statistics without reflection of real life.
The Mirage of GDP Numbers
GDP, the standard measure of economic performance, tells us how much a nation produces — not how its people live. In Somalia’s case, GDP growth is largely driven by aid inflows, remittances, and consumption spending, not by industrial or agricultural productivity.
The formal economy remains narrow and urban-centered, while rural communities — where over 60 per cent of Somalis live — see little to no benefit.
When new GDP figures are released, few ask how many new jobs were created, how wages changed, or how much household purchasing power improved.
A rise in GDP without parallel increases in employment or productivity is a statistical illusion — it looks like progress, but it doesn’t feel like it.
The Employment Paradox
Somalia’s unemployment rate among youth — estimated at more than 70 per cent — is among the highest in the world. Every year, thousands of graduates enter a job market that barely exists.
The mismatch between GDP growth and employment is a sign that the benefits of growth are not being distributed.
This pattern is not unique to Somalia. Across the Horn of Africa, economies that appear to be expanding on paper still fail to absorb their young, educated populations.
When growth depends on imports, remittances, and government consumption rather than domestic production, it rarely creates sustainable jobs.
What the Data Doesn’t Show
Part of the problem lies in weak statistical systems. Somalia’s national accounts are still built on outdated data, incomplete surveys, and heavy donor assumptions.
Without reliable labour, price, and productivity statistics, GDP numbers can mislead policymakers and the public alike.
For instance, a booming telecom or construction sector may inflate GDP even while real incomes stagnate and informal work dominates.
Measuring growth through GDP alone is like judging a person’s health only by their weight — it tells you something, but not everything.
The Way Forward: People-Centric Economics
Somalia needs a shift from growth economics to employment economics. The true test of progress should be how many people move from survival to stability.
This means prioritizing sectors that absorb labour — agriculture, fisheries, manufacturing, and digital entrepreneurship — rather than those that only inflate output statistics.
Better data is equally vital. Establishing a robust national statistics authority, conducting regular labour force and household surveys, and integrating digital ID systems.
Economic narratives must evolve beyond the comfort of donor-approved GDP charts. Real progress happens when data reflects dignity, not just digits.
Conclusion
Somalia’s economic story cannot be told through GDP alone. Growth that doesn’t translate into jobs is not growth — it’s arithmetic optimism.
The next chapter of Somalia’s development must focus on inclusion, productivity, and accurate measurement.
Until then, the GDP rise will remain what it is today: a statistical illusion floating above a struggling reality.
The opinion expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa
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