Opinion: Somalia Must Act Before El Niño-Linked Floods Arrive

By Abdifatah Omar Ibrahim - a climate resilience and sustainable development professional.

“Uncertainty should not be an excuse for delay. When the potential consequences are severe, credible early warnings should trigger practical preparation before conditions deteriorate.”Abdifatah Omar Ibrahim

A Country Caught Between Drought and Flood#

Somalia faces a dangerous climate reversal. After repeated failed rainy seasons left families struggling with water shortages, livestock losses and poor harvests, forecasts point to a wetter-than-normal Deyr season between October and December 2026. The concern is not simply that rain may arrive, but that intense rainfall could strike communities already weakened by drought, displacement, conflict and limited humanitarian support.

The scale of recent hardship makes preparedness urgent. Figures cited in humanitarian assessments earlier this year indicated that millions of Somalis were facing acute food insecurity, while drought-related displacement had risen sharply. Southern Somalia’s 2025 Deyr cereal harvest was reported to be far below its long-term average, while many water points remained non-functional. These pressures leave households with fewer resources to recover if floods damage homes, crops, roads or water supplies.

What the Forecast Tells Us — and What It Does Not#

Regional climate outlooks issued in 2026 indicated a high probability of wetter-than-normal conditions across central and southern Somalia during the Deyr season. Forecasts linked the risk to a strengthening El Niño and the possibility of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The 1997–98 and 2023 seasons provide important historical comparisons, as both brought severe flooding to parts of the country.

A seasonal forecast does not guarantee that every district will experience flooding. The timing, location and intensity of rainfall can vary, making it essential for authorities and communities to follow updates from Somalia’s meteorological and disaster management institutions, as well as regional climate bodies.

But uncertainty should not be an excuse for delay. When the potential consequences are severe, credible early warnings should trigger practical preparation before conditions deteriorate.

Why Drought Can Make Flooding More Damaging#

After prolonged dry conditions, heavy rain can run off hard or compacted ground rather than soaking in. When rainfall is intense, this runoff can contribute to flash flooding. The Juba and Shabelle rivers also pose risks to communities living along low-lying riverbanks, particularly when water levels rise rapidly following heavy rainfall upstream in the Ethiopian highlands.

Somalia’s experience in 2023 demonstrates how quickly flooding can become a humanitarian emergency. Heavy Deyr rains displaced large numbers of people, damaged farmland and submerged parts of Beledweyne. Earlier flood episodes, including the 1997–98 season, also demonstrated the potential for major losses when rivers overflow. These events serve as warnings, not predictions that the same outcome is inevitable in 2026.

The central lesson is that drought and flooding should not be treated as separate crises. A family that has sold livestock, lost a harvest or been displaced by drought has fewer resources to withstand another shock. Floods can destroy stored grain and seeds, contaminate wells, disrupt markets and isolate communities from healthcare facilities and humanitarian assistance. Their combined impact can be far greater than either hazard alone.

Somalia’s History of Repeated Climate Shocks#

Somalia’s recent experience shows that drought and flooding are interconnected risks. The country’s two main rainy seasons are Gu, from April to June, and Deyr, from October to December. Over recent decades, communities have experienced prolonged droughts, sometimes followed by destructive floods.

The 1997–98 El Niño season brought exceptionally heavy rainfall and major flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The 2010–11 drought and famine, the droughts of 2016–17 and 2022–23, and the drought followed by severe flooding in 2019 illustrate how recurring climate shocks threaten food security and livelihoods.

In late 2023, El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole coincided with heavy Deyr rains and large-scale displacement. These episodes offer important lessons, although they do not mean that similar impacts are inevitable in 2026.

Conflict, displacement and limited access to assistance have made recovery more difficult for many communities. The current risk must therefore be understood against this background: a new flood emergency could affect households that have already lost livestock, income, harvests or shelter during drought.

The Humanitarian Consequences#

Flooding could force families from their homes and increase pressure on already overcrowded displacement sites. Riverine farmers and agropastoral households could lose crops, livestock, tools and income. If roads and bridges become impassable, deliveries of food and other essential goods may be delayed, prices could rise, and humanitarian organisations may struggle to reach affected communities.

Water safety is another immediate concern. Floodwater can contaminate wells and other drinking-water sources, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases, including acute watery diarrhoea and cholera. Children already affected by malnutrition are particularly vulnerable when safe water, healthcare services and nutritious food become harder to access.

"Uncertainty should not be an excuse for delay. When the potential consequences are severe, credible early warnings should trigger practical preparation before conditions deteriorate"Abdifatah Omar Ibrahim

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The risks are not identical everywhere. Some areas may receive beneficial rainfall that improves pasture and water availability, while others could face dangerous flooding and continued food insecurity. Preparedness must therefore be guided by updated local information rather than a single national assessment.

Six Priorities for Action Before the Rains Peak#

First, make warnings understandable and actionable. Authorities should share timely alerts through radio, mobile messages, local leaders and community volunteers. Messages should explain the likely dangers, identify areas at risk, indicate where people can find safe shelter and outline what households should do next. Information must reach women, older people, people with disabilities and communities with limited access to digital services.

Second, monitor river levels and communicate changes quickly. Readings from upstream and downstream monitoring points should be shared with district authorities and communities along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Coordination across borders and between national and local institutions is essential because heavy rainfall upstream can raise river levels downstream with little warning.

Third, pre-position essential supplies. Food, safe drinking water, water-treatment materials, emergency shelter items, medicines and nutrition supplies should be placed near high-risk areas before roads become impassable. Preparedness plans should identify who will release supplies, how they will be transported and which communities have the greatest unmet needs.

Fourth, protect water infrastructure. Where feasible, wells, boreholes and water intakes should be protected from floodwater. Authorities and humanitarian partners should prepare for water testing, chlorination, hygiene promotion and rapid repairs to prevent communities from losing access to safe drinking water after flooding.

Fifth, establish evacuation routes and safe shelters in advance. Communities and local authorities should identify higher ground, routes likely to remain accessible and facilities capable of safely accommodating displaced families. Shelter plans must consider privacy, protection, sanitation and the specific needs of children, women, older people and people with disabilities.

Sixth, prioritise riverine communities and displaced households. Families living near rivers, in agropastoral areas and in displacement sites often have limited savings and few means of absorbing further losses. Assistance should be guided by updated risk and needs assessments, transparent selection criteria and coordination between government institutions and humanitarian partners.

Turn Forecasts Into Action#

Somalia does not lack experience of climate emergencies. What matters now is whether lessons from previous droughts and floods can be translated into action early enough to protect lives and livelihoods.

The Somali Disaster Management Agency, relevant ministries, state authorities, local administrations and humanitarian organisations should agree on clear responsibilities, financing arrangements and triggers for action before the Deyr rains peak.

Preparedness must also involve communities themselves. Local residents often know which roads flood first, which households need help evacuating and where safe water can be found. Their knowledge should inform district-level plans, while authorities provide reliable information, resources and coordination.

Plans should be reviewed as forecasts change, and emergency funding should be made available before a crisis forces costly last-minute interventions.

The 2026 outlook remains probabilistic, and conditions will vary across Somalia. Nevertheless, the combination of recent drought, existing displacement and the possibility of heavy rainfall is serious enough to justify immediate preparation.

Acting before the water rises is more humane and effective than responding after homes, crops and water points have been destroyed. Somalia now has an opportunity to demonstrate that early warning can lead to early action — and that a forecast can become an opportunity to prevent avoidable suffering.

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