By Sayid Omar Moallim Abdullahi - Somali writer, researcher and university lecturer.
“Israeli recognition has shifted the Somaliland issue from a local dispute into an arena of geopolitical competition affecting Somalia’s unity, Red Sea security and regional stability.” --- Sayid Omar Moallim Abdullahi
Introduction#
On December 26 last year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as an independent state from the Federal Republic of Somalia.
The announcement came as the culmination of a series of contacts that paved the way for exchanges of visits, eventually leading to the exchange of ambassadors and expanded cooperation in vital sectors, including water resources, renewable energy and technology, as well as investment, trade and minerals.
According to official statements and declarations, the recognition decision falls within efforts aimed at promoting regional peace and stability, cooperation in combating terrorism, and alignment with the framework of the U.S.-backed Abraham Accords since the first Trump administration.
This recognition is based on a set of claims that are more hypothetical in nature than grounded in realities on the ground. Among the most prominent are claims that the two are democratic oases in a turbulent regional environment, that they share an interest in confronting the threat of transnational armed groups, and that both have suffered different forms of political isolation, in addition to claims of shared values and a spirit of friendship and mutual respect between the two peoples.
The Roots#
The recognition announcement crowns a long history of undeclared interactions between the two sides stretching back decades. The roots of Israeli interest in the Horn of Africa date to the nineteenth century.
The objectives of the announcement also complement earlier colonial plans to divide Somalia and align with the Israeli security doctrine centered on maritime routes at the entrances to the Red Sea and on dismantling regional blocs with an Islamic identity, foremost among them Somalia.
In the post-independence period, Somalia was at the forefront of countries opposing the Israeli settlement project in international and regional forums, regarding it and the apartheid system that once prevailed in South Africa as two sides of the same coin.
As a result of this consistent position, Israel became one of the most prominent powers supporting clan-based fronts, specifically the Somali Salvation Democratic Front (SSDF) and the Somali National Movement (SNM), from which the political legitimacy of Somaliland’s current administration derives.
Israel contributed significantly to undermining the Somali state and containing its regional influence through various means, within the context of Cold War rivalries and systematic plans to penetrate the Arab national security system, and in response to Mogadishu’s historical positions.
These contacts intensified during the periods in which Mohamed Haji Ibrahim Egal (1928–2002) and Dahir Riyale (1952–) governed the region, under various forms, before developing more recently through indirect channels and reciprocal visits in regional capitals sponsoring this issue, culminating in the current announcement of mutual diplomatic recognition.
Unstated Objectives#
- Establishing a naval military base that would secure Israel a permanent presence in the waters of the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, enabling it to carry out complex strategic missions and achieve interconnected objectives.
- Moving operationally closer to the Yemeni coast to tighten pressure on the Houthis and strengthen pre-emptive capabilities in confronting direct threats.
- Tightening surveillance over maritime navigation and global trade through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden.
- Applying the geopolitical “Periphery Doctrine” introduced by Ben-Gurion and building alliances in the outer geographic circle to encircle existing regional adversaries, such as Iran and the Houthis, or potential ones, such as the countries of the new Mecca alliance: Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
- Supporting Ethiopia’s geostrategic aspirations and assisting it in obtaining access to the Red Sea after it was unable to achieve this through diplomatic and conventional means in recent years.
Public Opinion Trends in Somaliland#
Political thought in Somaliland is divided into several currents that are predominantly clan-based rather than ideological. The unilateral declaration of separation from Somalia in 1991 represents the dividing timeline between these differing currents. Their paths narrow as we move forward in time, while their tributaries broaden in the opposite direction, toward the past.
Age, the extent of harm caused by authoritarian rule, and clan affiliation constitute key determinants of the prevalence of these political currents from one area to another.
As a result, the inclination toward unity is more prevalent in areas relatively distant from the center, while moderation prevails among the veteran civilian generation that experienced the two distinct periods.
By contrast, rigidity predominates among those connected to the fighters who fought under the banner of the Somali National Movement, as well as among the new generations born after the declaration of separation, who have no possibility of comparing the new period with what preceded it.
This pattern is not attributable to extremism or hardline attitudes in themselves, as much as it is a direct product of the political environment in which this generation lived, the narratives accumulated in its consciousness, and the stereotypical image imprinted on its mind throughout the past decades.
The Backlash from Israeli Recognition and Its Regional Implications#
The recognition announcement constitutes a strategic turning point that has cast its shadow over Somalia’s internal political landscape and caused a state of confusion among local forces. It has prompted countries in the region to reassess their geopolitical calculations and align themselves within regional groupings with differing objectives.
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Although the announcement created a deep rupture in the wall of national unity, it secured for Somalia an unprecedented wave of international and regional solidarity in support of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, underscoring the critical importance of maintaining the cohesion of its territorial map within regional security calculations.
At the regional level, these developments resulted in a noticeable acceleration in the reshaping of balances and defense blocs. Among the most prominent features was the signing of a trilateral defense agreement involving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye, alongside the establishment of a multinational maritime defense alliance comprising 14 Islamic countries under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, aimed at confronting growing maritime threats in areas including the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Conversely, these developments had a direct negative impact on Somaliland’s position. They transformed its issue from a local matter with understandable dimensions and roots into an agenda viewed regionally and organically linked to the active fronts in Yemen and Sudan.
In addition, the Israeli recognition announcement heightened tensions with the Houthis, encouraged local armed groups to move toward Hargeisa, and prompted the African Union to act to preserve the political maps of its member states, given the new threat this poses to continental stability and the violation it represents of the African Union Charter.
The Common Ground Between Israel’s Recognition in December 2025 and the Ethiopian Memorandum of Understanding in January 2024#
The Abraham Accords, launched by the United States, seek to normalize relations between Arab and Islamic countries and Israel by moving beyond the centrality of the Palestinian issue as a fundamental determinant of those relations and treating Israel as a state with a normal origin, rather than as a settler-colonial state with an openly declared settler project reflected in its strategic vision and public political discourse.
The recognition announcement and the memorandum of understanding share several common features, most notably bypassing Somali sovereignty, circumventing the state’s political legitimacy, relying on signatures on paper, and insisting on reaching the waters of the Gulf of Aden at any cost, while disregarding international and regional conventions and the rules of the international system governing relations between states.
The two sides also converge on a strategic principle based on staking their national security on destabilizing their regional neighborhood by fueling internal divisions and weakening sovereign centers of authority.
In addition, Ethiopia and Israel share similarities in the historical narratives surrounding the establishment of their states, and both are driven by a persistent security concern toward their neighbors, stemming from their establishment on lands that did not belong to them and from a constant sense of isolation within a regional environment dominated by Arab and Islamic countries.
Added to this historically rooted convergence is their practical agreement on ensuring that the Red Sea does not become a lake controlled exclusively by its littoral states. This has strengthened joint security and military coordination to protect their interests and entrenched mutual dependence in vital sectors, with negative repercussions for the stability of geographically neighboring states.
Implications of the Recognition Within Somaliland#
The social fabric of northern Somalia consists of five major clan components whose positions, since the declaration of separation in 1991, have varied between support for and opposition to the option of separation.
Although a broad segment supports this project, growing sections of society have begun rejecting its association with external agendas, particularly those linked to Israel, which allocated $727 million to improve its international image, heavily affected by the Gaza war and the positions of its Prime Minister Netanyahu because of crimes established in various international documents, in addition to rejecting attempts to bargain over the issue through the resettlement of people forcibly displaced from Gaza.
The recognition appears to have resulted in an erosion of internal social consensus and a narrowing of the political spectrum in Somaliland. It has also led to fragmentation in the region’s demographic fabric and the loss of much of the momentum and sympathy that had long served its aspirations, in addition to creating a rupture between Somaliland and its strategic depth across much of the Arab and Islamic world.
Persisting with separation has also placed Hargeisa’s gains at risk, particularly the commercial, developmental and humanitarian privileges it had received from Arab countries that regarded it as a stable Somali region and dealt with its temporary status pending a negotiated resolution with the central authority in Mogadishu.
In all cases, the recognition announcement, with its successive chapters, represents a stage in a long-running effort pursued by Hargeisa under various justifications. This requires the concerned parties to open a serious dialogue on the issue. This path contains propositions worthy of discussion and dialogue, but at the same time involves an infringement upon historical facts and a misuse of realities on the ground.
From here arises the urgent need to distinguish precisely between what is genuinely local to the issue and what is externally imported or copied, in order to reach an accurate understanding of what is real and what amounts to whitewashing Israel’s tarnished image.
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Sayid Omar Moallim Abdullahi is a Somali writer, researcher and university lecturer.
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.