By Abdullahi Salaad Hassan - Statistics and Planning graduate from SIMAD University and an experienced media professional. He currently serves as Head of News at Dawan Media and as a Producer at Dawan TV.
“Somalia’s political history shows that power does not simply change hands; it changes the rules for political survival.” Abdullahi Salaad
Somalia’s political journey over the past 35 years can be understood through one recurring reality: whenever the political system changes, the type of politician who can survive within that system changes with it.
A politician suited to Somalia’s political environment in 1992 may not have been suited to the system that emerged in 2012. Likewise, a politician who wielded significant influence in 2012 cannot assume that the same political methods will preserve his position in 2026.
Somalia’s elections have therefore done more than replace one officeholder with another. They have increasingly acted as a filter, pushing aside sections of an older political generation that struggled to adapt to changing circumstances.
1991: The Politics of the Gun#
When Somalia’s central government collapsed in 1991, political power across much of the country fell into the hands of armed movements, faction leaders and militias competing to fill the political and security vacuum.
Political influence was measured differently from today. How many fighters did a leader command? How much territory did he control? How many militiamen could he mobilise? Who could he fight, and with whom could he negotiate?
Without military power, securing a significant place at the political table was difficult.
That environment produced a generation whose understanding of power was shaped by the principle that authority had to be secured before laws and institutions could be established.
But every political system has a lifespan.
2000–2012: Negotiations and Clan Power Begin to Rival the Gun#
With the emergence of Somalia’s transitional governments, particularly the Transitional Federal Government established in 2004, Somali politics began moving in a different direction.
Weapons remained important, but military strength alone was no longer enough to become president, prime minister, minister or member of parliament.
Different political skills became increasingly valuable: negotiation, reconciliation, clan power-sharing, relations with neighbouring countries and engagement with the international community.
Some former faction leaders successfully adapted. They exchanged military fatigues for suits, transformed armed movements into political organisations and replaced private militias with parliamentary allies and political networks.
Others failed to make that transition.
This marked the beginning of a form of political extinction—not carried out by the gun, but by the emergence of a new political system.
2012: A New Political Generation#
The year 2012 marked a major turning point. A Provisional Constitution was adopted, the Federal Parliament was established, and parliament elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as president, formally ending the transitional era.
But the biggest change was not simply the identity of the president. It was the type of person who could reach the highest levels of politics.
A new class emerged: educated professionals, civil society figures, members of the diaspora, businesspeople and individuals without histories in armed movements.
The political value of saying, “I was a faction leader,” began to decline. Greater value was placed on being able to say: “I can secure parliamentary support. I can build coalitions. I have domestic and international relationships.”
Some politicians who had entered politics during the years of state collapse struggled with that reality. They were still playing on an old political field even though the game had changed.
2017 and 2022: Politics Becomes a Competition of Coalitions#
The 2016–2017 electoral process produced another transformation. Members of parliament were selected indirectly, and on 8 February 2017, parliament elected Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo as president.
A successful politician now needed more than a recognised clan name or long political history. He needed a campaign, financial resources, an organised team, a political message, media presence and the ability to navigate parliamentary alliances.
Politics was no longer simply about: “Who knows you?” It was increasingly about: “Who believes in you? Who can make a deal with you? And who will vote for you?”
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The 2022 election reinforced that lesson. On 15 May, parliament elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamud president for a second time after he defeated incumbent President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo in the final round.
By then, additional forces had become increasingly important: federal member states, coordination between the two houses of parliament, campaign financing, traditional and social media, and the ability to build alliances quickly.
A politician could still carry a famous name while watching his actual political weight decline.
This is where some politicians make a fundamental mistake: they assume yesterday’s name automatically carries yesterday’s value.
A political name is capital, but capital loses value when it is not reinvested.
2026: The Rules of the Game May Change#
If 2012, 2017 and 2022 changed many of the players, the political transition surrounding 2026 could affect the rules of the game itself.
Somalia has taken steps toward public voting and a party-based political system, moving away from indirect arrangements heavily dependent on clan power-sharing.
Mogadishu held local council elections in December 2025, widely viewed as an important step toward direct voting. However, there is still no comprehensive political agreement over the transition.
Constitutional amendments approved by parliament in March 2026 intensified disagreements over political terms and the electoral model, while opposition remains to key aspects of the emerging system.
That is why 2026 cannot simply be viewed like previous elections.
If Somali politics moves toward direct voting, political parties and broad public campaigning, tomorrow’s politician will require different skills.
A politician who depended on a handful of clan elders may need thousands of voters. One who relied on a small number of parliamentarians may need supporters across different regions. A politician accustomed to negotiations behind closed doors may have to stand before citizens and explain what he intends to do.
A politician whose clan name was once enough may need an actual political programme.
This is where established politicians risk missing the train—not because they have been excluded from politics, but because they may struggle to adapt to its changing form.
Why Do Somalis Fear Political Change?#
There is also an issue larger than politicians themselves: sections of Somali society remain cautious about rapid political change.
This does not necessarily mean Somalis are inherently opposed to change. Major political transformations in the country have often been accompanied by conflict, state collapse, violence, displacement or uncertainty.
People may therefore prefer a flawed system they understand to a new one whose consequences they cannot predict.
Some politicians also operate through that fear. When political change is discussed, the question may not always be: “How will the country benefit?” It may instead be: “Where will I fit into the new system?”
If political parties replace clan-based networks, or ordinary voters replace the small group of parliamentarians with whom deals were traditionally made, an established politician may not see reform as national progress. He may see it as a personal political threat.
That is where the interests of individual politicians can collide with those of the political system.
Conclusion#
Since 1991, Somalia has not merely changed its leaders. It has gradually changed the qualifications required to become a powerful politician.
In 1991, the man with the gun held power. During the transitional era, influence increasingly belonged to those who understood negotiation and clan power-sharing. In 2012, politicians capable of navigating emerging federal institutions rose to prominence. In 2017 and 2022, political survival increasingly depended on alliances, parliament, federal member states, media and election campaigns.
In 2026 and beyond, if Somalia genuinely moves toward voter- and party-based politics, another type of politician may emerge: one compelled to speak directly to citizens, seek their support, present a political programme and ultimately derive political power from the vote of the citizen.
* Abdullahi Salaad Hassan is a Statistics and Planning graduate from SIMAD University and an experienced media professional. He currently serves as Head of News at Dawan Media and as a Producer at Dawan TV.
* The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Dawan Africa.