By Abdirahman Gure - Somali writer and analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs and regional geopolitics.
“Only the loyalty that survives defeat deserves to be called loyalty. Everything else is merely fleeting admiration.”-ABDIRAHMAN GURE
The more I observe the behavior of crowds, the more convinced I become that the “herd mentality” is not merely a theory confined to psychology textbooks, but an everyday reality that unfolds before us with striking clarity. People do not always act according to their own convictions. More often than not, they are drawn toward the direction taken by the majority, even when they are not entirely convinced themselves.
The moment they see the crowd moving in one direction, they feel—consciously or unconsciously—that they must follow, lest they appear different or isolated. Perhaps that is why the voice of the crowd so often drowns out the voice of reason, and why belonging to the majority becomes easier than defending a personal conviction that few others share.
This thought came vividly to mind as I watched the FIFA World Cup final. In the streets of Mogadishu, many young men wore Argentina jerseys, chanted Lionel Messi's name, and spoke confidently about La Albiceleste lifting the trophy. Some behaved as though the title had already been secured before the referee had even blown the final whistle.
Yet the scene changed in an instant. The moment Spain scored the winning goal in extra time and the referee ended the match, Argentina jerseys disappeared and Spain shirts emerged. Celebrations erupted for La Roja, as though nothing had happened—as though the very same supporters who had been chanting Messi's name only moments earlier were now waving Spanish flags and cheering Spain's champions.
The scene was less amusing than it was revealing. It exposed how readily some people abandon one allegiance for another the moment the outcome changes. Nothing in the match had changed except a single goal, yet countless loyalties shifted within minutes. It became clear that this was never really about football. It was about a human tendency to attach one's loyalty to the winning side. Victory attracts admiration, while many people flee defeat as though it were a badge of shame rather than simply the outcome of a sporting contest. That is why every victory seems to produce more supporters for the winners, while the defeated quickly lose theirs—even if only yesterday those same supporters had filled the stands.
Even more remarkable is that some of these people do not merely change sides—they try to convince everyone that they had supported the winning team from the very beginning. It is as though collective memory is so short that personal histories can be rewritten within minutes. Yesterday they carried one banner; today they carry its opposite; tomorrow they may do the same again if the result changes once more. It is a form of temporary allegiance governed not by principles, but by the scoreboard.
For that reason, I have never understood the idea of changing teams with every tournament. I came to realize that genuine support is tested not in moments of triumph, but in moments of adversity. I have always supported the La Vecchia Signora —Juventus—and remained loyal to the club through its darkest days, including its relegation to Serie B in the summer of 2006, a punishment many considered the product of a conspiracy.
It never crossed my mind to search for a more successful club or one with a richer trophy cabinet. Likewise, I have supported the Azzurri since 1982. Even after Italy failed to qualify for three consecutive FIFA World Cups, I never considered changing my allegiance, because loyalty is not measured by the number of trophies a team wins, but by one's willingness to stand by what one loves when the road becomes difficult—before success eventually returns.
Some may argue that sport is merely a game and that changing the team one supports hardly deserves such attention. That may be true if football is viewed simply as ninety minutes on a pitch. But it becomes far less convincing when we recognize that sport reveals a great deal about human character. It reflects patience, emotion, loyalty, opportunism, resilience in defeat, and respect for one's opponent. In that sense, the way a person supports a team can sometimes reveal more about who they are than they could ever say about themselves.
Nor is this phenomenon confined to sport. It extends into politics, business, and social media. In politics, some people applaud whoever happens to hold power, only to turn against them as soon as the balance of power shifts. In business, many rush toward whichever venture everyone else is talking about—not because it is the best, but because it is the most fashionable.
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On social media, the value of an idea is increasingly measured by the number of likes and shares it receives rather than by the strength of its argument or the depth of its substance. It is as though truth itself now requires a popular vote instead of evidence.
Perhaps the greatest danger of this mentality is that it erodes independent thinking. A person who becomes accustomed to following the crowd gradually loses the courage to take a different position, even when they genuinely believe it is the right one. The question guiding their decisions is no longer, "What is right?" but rather, "What is everyone else doing?"Once a society reaches that stage, public opinion becomes remarkably easy to manipulate because many people are no longer searching for the truth—they are simply following the prevailing trend.
History itself teaches us that most transformative ideas did not begin with the majority. They began with individuals who possessed the courage to stand by their convictions, even when they stood alone. Had everyone remained captive to the herd mentality, societies would never have changed, nations would never have progressed, and new ideas would never have prevailed. History is shaped by people of conviction, not by those whose positions shift with every passing trend.
In the end, the final whistle does more than declare the winner of a match—it reveals the true character of the supporter. Some remain loyal regardless of the outcome, while others change jerseys with every victory, switch allegiances with every trophy, and constantly seek a place beneath the spotlight of the winners.
Those who remain faithful despite defeat are the ones who give true meaning to supporting a team, because loyalty is not revealed when victories are plentiful, but when they are scarce. The only loyalty worthy of the name is the one that survives defeat. A loyalty that changes with every result is nothing more than fleeting admiration disguised as devotion.
To me, these are the very definition of bandwagon fans.
Abdirahman Gure is a Somali writer and political analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs and regional geopolitics. His work explores politics, culture, and philosophy.
Email: gure57@gmail.com
The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Dawan Africa.