By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, August 29, 2026 - Nairobi woke up to an unusual quiet on Friday as anticipation of demonstrations over rising taxes and customs charges kept commuters, businesses and traders away from parts of the city centre.
The normally busy approaches into the Central Business District recorded significantly lighter traffic in the early morning, with fewer public service vehicles and private cars on the roads. Inside the CBD, several businesses that would ordinarily have opened early remained closed, while pedestrian traffic was noticeably lower than usual.
The slowdown came as small-scale traders prepared to protest against a new Kenya Revenue Authority customs valuation benchmark that increased the minimum benchmark for a 40-foot container of consolidated general cargo from KSh2.5 million to KSh3.2 million, a KSh700,000 or 28 per cent increase that took effect this month.
The traders, drawn from markets including Kamukunji, Gikomba and Nyamakima, have threatened a nationwide business shutdown as they demand a review of the new benchmark and what they describe as an increasingly difficult tax environment.
But even before demonstrations take shape, Nairobi's quieter streets are illustrating another side of the dispute: the economic cost of a city slowing down.
Previous protest-related shutdowns have demonstrated how quickly the disruption can spread beyond the people taking part in demonstrations.
During the Saba Saba shutdown in July 2025, Nairobi's daily economic activity was estimated at about KSh10.4 billion, based on the city's KSh3.8 trillion annual Gross County Product. The estimate was used to illustrate the scale of economic activity potentially affected when businesses close, workers stay away and transport is disrupted.
The losses do not fall on large corporations alone.
A closed shop means a day's sales disappear. A matatu that does not operate loses a day's income. A casual worker who cannot reach work may lose a day's pay. A restaurant serving fewer customers loses revenue, while suppliers further up the chain also feel the impact.
The transport sector has previously put a direct figure on the disruption. During demonstrations in June 2025, the Matatu Owners Association estimated that operators lost 40% of their Nairobi revenues in a single day, with the sector's daily gross earnings in the capital estimated at about KSh375 million.
For Nairobi County, the impact is also felt through reduced collections from activities such as parking and other services. During previous protests, the county's daily own-source revenue was estimated at tens of millions of shillings, with parking among its most important revenue streams.
Yet Friday's unusually quiet CBD also exposes the difficult balance facing the country.
The traders are protesting because they say the cost of doing business has become unsustainable. KRA, meanwhile, has defended the new KSh3.2 million figure, saying it is a minimum reference value for customs valuation and not a flat tax bill of KSh3.2 million on every container. The authority issued the clarification on Friday following growing concern among small-scale importers.
The distinction is significant because the traders' interpretation of the new benchmark has become one of the central issues driving the planned shutdown.
The protests also come against a changing political conversation about the right to dissent.
Only a day earlier, President William Ruto defended the constitutional right to peaceful protest and criticism, saying the Gen Z demonstrations should be understood as citizens demanding accountability rather than an attack on democracy.
“Those demands were not an assault on democracy. Peaceful protest, criticism, and dissent are essential to democracy,” Ruto said at the Katiba Day Symposium in Nairobi on Thursday.
He went further, saying the protection provided by Article 37 of the Constitution must be real and that Kenyans should not lose their lives, liberty or dignity for criticising the Government, expressing unpopular opinions or participating in peaceful demonstrations.
That position sets an important backdrop for Friday's demonstrations.
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The constitutional right to assemble, demonstrate, picket and petition is protected under Article 37, but the same constitutional framework does not protect violence, looting or destruction of property. President Ruto has repeatedly drawn that distinction.
For businesses, however, the challenge begins even before violence occurs.
The mere possibility of unrest can be enough to keep workers at home and businesses behind closed doors.
That is evident in the advisories issued to employees and organisations ahead of Friday's anticipated protests. Security teams have warned of possible congestion, road closures, disruptions to public transport and restricted movement within parts of the CBD.
Employees have been advised to maintain heightened situational awareness, monitor developments, use alternative routes and coordinate movements through emergency and security teams. Some organisations have specifically encouraged staff to make early movements before 8am and avoid the CBD where possible.
The response has not been uniform.
The Eastleigh Business Community, for instance, directed traders to keep their businesses open on Friday and stay away from street protests, saying it was pursuing dialogue with KRA over the tax grievances. The association said its executive committee had resolved that shops, wholesale outlets, markets and transport operations should remain operational during normal business hours.
That difference highlights the competing pressures facing Nairobi's business community.
On one side are traders who argue that rising taxation and import costs threaten their livelihoods and want to use collective action to force the government to listen.
On the other are businesses and employees who fear that shutting down the economy, even temporarily, could deepen the very economic difficulties that traders are protesting against.
Friday's events will therefore be about more than what happens on the streets.
They will test whether Kenya can accommodate a powerful expression of public dissatisfaction while keeping its commercial heart functioning.
And Nairobi's unusually quiet morning has already provided a glimpse of what is at stake.
Before a single demonstration begins, the economic effects of uncertainty are already visible: fewer commuters, fewer vehicles, shuttered businesses and a city operating below its normal rhythm.
The question now is whether that pause will remain peaceful and temporary, or whether the tax dispute will turn into another prolonged disruption for a city whose economy depends on millions of people moving every day.