Mandera steps up El Niño preparedness as heavy rains forecast

September 01, 2026 - The Mandera County Government has stepped up preparations for the forecast El Niño conditions, with authorities and humanitarian partners developing an early-warning and response plan to minimise the impact of heavy rains and possible flooding.

The county is working with the World Food Programme (WFP) through the Department of Social Services, Special Programmes and Disaster Preparedness and Management to develop a Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) framework.

The exercise brings together county departments, humanitarian agencies and other stakeholders to assess weather forecasts, map possible scenarios and agree on early actions that can be taken before the rains intensify.

The initiative comes amid warnings from the Kenya Meteorological Department of enhanced rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) season as El Niño conditions strengthen in the region.

The forecasts have raised concern in arid and semi-arid counties such as Mandera, where heavy rains can rapidly trigger flash floods, riverine flooding, destruction of roads and disruption of essential services.

“The PSP brings together government departments, partners and key stakeholders to analyse forecast information, develop possible scenarios, and agree on early actions and preparedness measures to mitigate the potential impacts of heavy rains, flooding and other related risks,” the county government said.

Mandera is particularly vulnerable because of its proximity to the Daua River, which forms part of the Kenya-Ethiopia border. Heavy rainfall in the river's catchment areas can cause the river to swell, threatening settlements, farmland, livestock and transport links.

The county experienced the devastating effects of heavy rains during the 2023 El Niño season, when flooding affected several parts of Mandera, particularly areas along the Daua River and other low-lying locations.

The floods disrupted transport and livelihoods, damaged infrastructure and displaced families, while livestock and agricultural activities were also affected. Some communities were cut off after roads and bridges became impassable, complicating the delivery of humanitarian assistance and essential services.

The experience has heightened the need for authorities to act before extreme weather events occur rather than relying mainly on emergency response after disasters strike.

The current preparedness exercise is therefore expected to help the county identify areas at greatest risk, strengthen early-warning systems and establish actions that can be implemented when forecasts indicate an imminent threat.

The county government said the approach would also help strengthen community resilience and anticipatory action, allowing assistance and resources to be positioned ahead of a potential disaster.

Mandera has received support from several development and humanitarian organisations in its preparedness efforts, including the Danish Refugee Council (DRC-Kenya), Save the Children and the Regional Agency for Integrated Development Approaches (RACIDA).

“The County Government of Mandera appreciates WFP and other partners, including DRC-Kenya, Save the Children, and RACIDA for their valuable support and contribution towards strengthening anticipatory action, preparedness and community resilience in Mandera County,” the county said.

Beyond flooding, unusually heavy rainfall can increase the risk of waterborne diseases, damage health and education facilities and disrupt food and livestock markets in a county where many households depend heavily on pastoralism.

The preparedness plan is consequently expected to focus not only on emergency response but also on protecting livelihoods, ensuring continuity of essential services and supporting vulnerable communities before, during and after the rainy season.