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Kenya, October 22, 2026 - Many people in central and eastern Kenya expected the short rains to start in the middle of October. The weather service had said the rains would likely begin in the second or third week of the month. Instead, the days stayed sunny and the temperatures climbed higher than normal.
The Kenya Meteorological Service has now explained what happened. The main system that brings rain at this time of year is called the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It is a band of clouds and moisture that moves south across the country every year. When it moves, the rains usually follow.
This year the system started moving on time. Rains began in western Kenya, along the coast, and in some northern areas. But then a low-pressure system formed over the northern Indian Ocean. This system slowed down the rain band and stopped it from moving further south into central and eastern Kenya.
Without the rain band bringing enough moisture, those areas stayed dry. Clear skies allowed the sun to heat the ground strongly, so temperatures rose higher than usual. Nairobi and nearby counties felt this heat most clearly, with warm mornings and hot afternoons.
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The weather service had always said the exact start of the rains could vary from place to place. The strong El Niño in the Pacific raised the chances of good rains overall, but it does not control every detail of the weather. Other systems, especially those over the Indian Ocean, can still change the timing.
So the delay is not a mistake in the forecast. It is the result of a temporary weather feature that interrupted the normal movement of the rain system. The weather service continues to watch the situation closely as the season continues.