By Ken Muthomi - Reporter
Kenya, May 20, 2026 - Kenya is among the countries expected to record above-normal temperatures during the upcoming June–September (JJAS) season, according to a new forecast by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
The temperature outlook has highlighted that Sudan, most parts of South Sudan, and Ethiopia are expected to experience warmer-than-normal conditions during this period, with very low chances of below-normal temperatures across the Greater Horn of Africa, which includes Kenya.
The outlook was issued during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 73), held in Ethiopia, which saw the participation from national meteorological services, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), as well as other regional partners.
Apart from Kenya, other countries that are expected to be the most affected include South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Sudan.
“The evolving 2026 climate conditions closely resemble those experienced during the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023,” the outlook stated.
“During both analogue years, several parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya recorded below-normal rainfall during the June–September season, similar to the conditions currently forecast for 2026,” it added.
ICPAC has cautioned that the below-normal rainfall conditions might have severe implications on key sectors, including rainfed agriculture, water availability, livestock systems, hydropower generation, food security, conflict, and public health.
Speaking during the opening of the ceremony, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware stressed the need for governments and the public to utilise the forecast information and other advisories that will be issued for advance planning.
“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action,’ recognising that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference,” Mohamed said.
The announcement comes week after the Kenya Meteorological Department urged Kenyans to brace for warm temperatures from the second half of May, marking the end of the March–April–May 2026 rainy season.
While Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the Southeastern Lowlands, and Northeastern Kenya will experience reduced rain after May 15, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, and parts of the Rift Valley and Northwestern Kenya will experience near-average to below-average rainfall until June.
Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Rift Valley, and the Southeastern Lowlands are likely to experience cool and cloudy conditions, alongside a drop in temperatures, signalling the transition to the cold and dry season.
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