Somalia, 18 October 2025 – Global think tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG), has warned that Somalia’s growing political divisions over electoral processes pose a serious threat to the country’s stability and could undermine international support.
In a new report released Thursday, the Brussels-based nongovernmental organization said the government’s plan to transition to a “one-person, one-vote” system by 2026 faces major resistance. Puntland and Jubbaland have rejected the proposed framework, while opposition groups have accused Villa Somalia of tailoring reforms to serve President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s political ambitions.
The report noted that these disputes have diverted attention from the fight against Al-Shabaab, at a time when both military operations and the transition of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) face uncertainty and funding shortfalls. The ICG urged international partners to press Somali stakeholders to resume dialogue to prevent renewed instability and violence similar to that of 2021–2022.
Among the key recommendations, the ICG proposed:
Pilot local elections: Conduct small-scale direct elections in selected areas, such as Mogadishu, as a step toward universal suffrage.
Interim political agreement: Negotiate a transitional arrangement between federal and state authorities for improved indirect elections with broader participation.
Structured roadmap: Establish a clear timeline and framework for achieving full direct elections in the near and medium term.
Institutional reforms: Expand representation in the National Electoral Commission, create an independent electoral court, and adopt a code of conduct limiting political interference.
The ICG highlighted that municipal elections have already been delayed, with the government now focusing on organizing a pilot vote in Mogadishu by the end of the year — an exercise meant to test the feasibility of a national one-person-one-vote system. However, insecurity, AUSSOM’s financial difficulties, and deep political rifts continue to constrain implementation.
The report concluded that genuine negotiations involving the federal government, federal member states — particularly Puntland and Jubbaland — and opposition groups remain the only path to avoid another electoral crisis and preserve confidence in Somalia’s fragile federal system. It cautioned that “pushing forward with a plan that lacks consensus risks deepening political fragmentation and eroding donor trust.”