From Coup Leader to President: What Michael Randrianirina’s Rise Means for Madagascar’s Democracy

Madagascar has become the latest Francophone nation to fall under military control, joining a growing list of African states that have experienced coups since 2020.

On 17 October 2025, Colonel Michael Randrianirina, commander of the elite CAPSAT (Corps des Personnels et des Services Administratifs et Techniques), was sworn in as president, barely a week after President Andry Rajoelina fled into exile in France following a dramatic military takeover.

According to BBC News, the Indian Ocean Island's High Constitutional Court formalised Randrianirina’s appointment after declaring Rajoelina unfit to govern, citing “dereliction of duty”. His ouster followed weeks of violent street protests led by the youth-driven Gen Z Mada movement, angered by crippling power and water shortages.

The United Nations reported that at least 22 people were killed and hundreds injured in clashes with security forces before the military intervened, ostensibly to “restore order”.

A Familiar Pattern of Frustration

Rajoelina’s fall carries an air of déjà vu. His own rise to power in 2009 came through a coup that isolated Madagascar internationally, prompting sanctions and deep economic recession. Though re-elected in 2019 on promises of renewal and infrastructure development, his administration struggled to deliver. By 2025, unemployment and inflation had soared, basic services were failing, and frustration among Madagascar’s restless youth reached breaking point.

As Al Jazeera reports, the protests reflected “a generation’s disillusionment with leaders who promise change, but deliver little beyond slogans”.

A History of Unfinished Transitions

Since independence from France in 1960, Madagascar has had 12 presidents and endured three major military take overs, in 1972, 2009, and now 2025. Each upheaval has promised renewal; each has deepened instability.

No government has managed to achieve sustained growth. According to the World Bank, more than 70 percent of Malagasy citizens still live in poverty, and the country’s GDP per capita

remains below its 1960s level. Chronic political crises have disrupted investment, tourism, and infrastructure projects.

Economist Dr Haja Rakotondrabe of the University of Antananarivo says “Madagascar’s economy has always had potential, in agriculture, tourism, and mining, but every time stability falters, progress collapses.”

Promises of Transition

Addressing thousands of cheering demonstrators in Antananarivo, the 51-year-old Randrianirina declared that the military would form a transitional government and hold elections “within two years”.

He has since told local media that consultations are underway to appoint a consensus Prime Minister and civilian cabinet.

Such assurances sound familiar across Francophone Africa.

BBC Africa notes that similar pledges were made in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, and Gabon, yet none of those juntas has so far restored full civilian rule.

Lessons from the Region

Across the Sahel and Central Africa, military rulers have justified takeovers as efforts to “reclaim sovereignty” from foreign interference,particularly from France,and to end corruption and insecurity. But the results have been mixed at best.

In Mali and Burkina Faso, Islamist insurgencies continue despite break-ups with Western allies. Niger’s junta remains under sanctions, while Guinea’s promised reforms have stalled. Gabon,

analysts say, shows only modest signs of opening up through limited dialogue with political parties.

As Reuters recently observed, “no Francophone coup leader since 2020 has yet returned power to an elected government”.

What Next for Madagascar?

Randrianirina’s challenge now lies in balancing public expectations with international pressure.

The African Union and United Nations have both called for a swift restoration of constitutional order, while donors weigh the risk of suspending aid—vital to Madagascar’s fragile economy.

Political analyst Marie-Claire Andrianarisoa of the Southern Africa Policy Institute highlights that:

“People don’t demand miracles; they want consistency and trust in leadership. Each administration starts with hope, but the lack of continuity and corruption erode whatever gains are made.”

As the new president consolidates power, observers fear a repeat of the same cycle, revolutionary zeal giving way to entrenched authority.

For a nation that has endured six decades of unstable democracy, the question now is whether Colonel Randrianirina will truly usher in stability, or simply become the next chapter in Madagascar’s long story of interrupted transitions.