Floods, Forecasts and the Cost of Delay: Why Kajwang' Says Kenya Must Heed Early Warning Systems

Kenya, 16 June 2026 - As climate shocks become more frequent and severe, Homa Bay Senator Moses Kajwang' is warning that Kenya can no longer afford to treat flood disasters as seasonal emergencies.

His message is simple: the country already knows what may be coming. The challenge is whether leaders will act before disaster strikes.

Across Nyanza, memories of devastating floods remain fresh. In Karachuonyo, persistent rains have repeatedly caused rivers such as Miriu, Kibuon and Awach Tende to burst their banks, displacing families, destroying crops and cutting off communities. Similar scenes are common in the Kano Plains of Kisumu County, where River Nyando and backflows from Lake Victoria routinely force hundreds of residents from their homes.

For years, the cycle has been painfully predictable. Heavy rains arrive. Villages are submerged. Families seek refuge in schools, health facilities and temporary camps. Relief agencies move in with food, tents and medical supplies. Then, as waters recede, attention shifts elsewhere until the next flood season.

Kajwang argues that this reactive approach is no longer acceptable.

The senator is urging both national and county governments to pay close attention to forecasts from global and local weather agencies, which indicate a high probability of El Niño conditions developing and persisting through the latter part of 2026.

"We should not wait until the rains start falling before we begin mobilising resources and calling for assistance," Kajwang said.

According to the senator, early warning systems are not merely technical forecasts. They are tools for protecting lives, public health and livelihoods. When governments receive advance notice of heightened flood risks, he argues, emergency plans should immediately be activated, evacuation routes mapped, vulnerable populations identified and critical infrastructure secured.

His concern is informed by the realities on the ground. In previous flood events, displaced families in Karachuonyo have found shelter in institutions such as Simbi Dispensary, Kandiege Primary School, Koyugi and Yala Primary School. Overcrowding, poor sanitation and inadequate mosquito-net coverage have often increased the risk of disease outbreaks, including malaria and waterborne illnesses.

For Kajwang, the deeper problem is that many flood-prone communities remain trapped in a cycle of dependence.

"It is embarrassing that every year people wait for relief food labelled GOK because we have failed to prepare adequately," he said.

While welcoming emergency interventions by agencies such as the Kenya Red Cross and World Vision, the senator insists that long-term investments must accompany humanitarian responses.