By Hassan Wekesa - Editor
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Kenya, 21 October 2026 - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on Wednesday issued an outlook on the expected effects of El Niño across regions and countries during the October-November-December (OND) period.
Both agencies called for urgent, coordinated anticipatory action.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said all players must use forecasts and early warnings to protect those most at risk.
“We have the science, the forecasts and the early warnings to save lives and protect livelihoods. What we need now is decisive action, especially to protect the most vulnerable communities. The window for preparedness is still open in many regions. Extreme weather does not need to translate into humanitarian emergencies or casualties, but this window will not remain open indefinitely,” she said.
Speaking at a joint press briefing with Tom Fletcher, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Saulo said early planning could help avert the worst El Niño scenarios.
“That is why our priority is to provide science-based information so that governments and humanitarian organisations can anticipate risks, prepare operations and protect vulnerable populations,” she said.
El Niño can compound humanitarian needs, particularly among already vulnerable populations such as refugees, communities living in conflict and displaced people, where housing, water, sanitation and health services are already under pressure.
The outlook says wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely in parts of East Africa during the October-December rainy season, raising concerns about heavy rainfall and flooding.
In Southern Africa, there is an increased risk of drier conditions from November that could affect crop production, water availability and livelihoods.
In South-East Asia, warmer conditions and rainfall deficits increase the risk of heat exposure and add pressure on agriculture and water supplies, on top of problems such as the wildfires already being seen.
In the Americas, increased rainfall is expected in parts of the north-western United States and southern parts of western South America, following recent flooding in Chile and the Panama Basin.
North America and the northern Caribbean are also expected to receive above-normal precipitation.
“These are regional and seasonal outlooks, not predictions of individual events. Regional and national forecasts are essential to identify where and when action is needed,” Saulo said.
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“Our greatest concern is for people already living on the edge,” she added.
She said the WMO is working closely with OCHA and other partners, including humanitarian organisations, to bring climate considerations into practical decision-making.
“Today we are issuing a joint call for urgent and coordinated anticipatory action. The forecast gives us advance warning, and we must use that warning to protect those most at risk,” she said.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate pattern defined by sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
El Niño is the warm phase and La Niña the cool phase. During El Niño, Pacific waters are warmer than normal, which increases evaporation and cloud formation.
This leads to heavy rainfall in some parts of the world, including East Africa and South America, while other regions experience drought. The heavy rain can trigger mudslides and destroy infrastructure and livelihoods, with serious consequences for health, agriculture and the economy. During La Niña, Pacific waters are cooler than normal, which usually brings drought and poor rainfall to East Africa. Both phases originate in the Pacific, but their effects are felt across the world.
For years, the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) summits, organised under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have brought together experts and stakeholders to agree strategies, protocols and declarations on climate extremes and global warming. COP31 is scheduled for 9-20 November 2026, in Antalya, Turkey, with a focus on climate finance and the transition away from fossil fuels.
Africa and most other developing countries suffer the most from extreme weather, even though the emissions driving it come mainly from industrialised nations. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the main gas responsible for global warming, and scientific evidence presented at COP meetings shows Africa contributes very little of it. Tropical countries are expected to be hardest hit by the El Niño forecast for October.
To ensure no lives are lost, the public and private sectors should work together to clear clogged drainage channels and manage garbage properly, set up alarms, apps and other channels to alert citizens, and strengthen coordination among regional disaster management agencies. They should also provide safe evacuation centres with adequate facilities and services, including clean water. These can include government offices, police camps, Red Cross and Red Crescent facilities, schools and hotels.
Kenya’s Ministry of Health expects waterborne diseases to rise with the heavy rainfall. It has urged families to drink boiled and treated water and store it in clean, covered containers, and to wash their hands with soap and safe water before handling food and after using the toilet. Families should cook food thoroughly, eat it while it is still warm and keep it covered to avoid contamination and food poisoning. The ministry also urges people to use safe sanitation, dispose of children’s faeces safely, report sewage leaks and keep children away from floodwater.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of enhanced rainfall during the OND season as El Niño conditions strengthen in the region.
El Niño Outlook: Wetter-than-normal conditions likely in East Africa as WMO, OCHA call for urgent action.