By Dawan Africa–Editorial - ––
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met in Addis Ababa on Tuesday, four days before an expected meeting of the leaders of Somalia, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea in the Egyptian city of El Alamein, held alongside the African Union’s mid-year summit. The talks came as rebels in Ethiopia pushed into parts of the Tigray and Afar regions, while Somalia faces a strong armed rebellion in South West State, which shares a long border with Ethiopia and hosts Ethiopian troops.
A senior diplomatic source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Dawan that the meeting was Prime Minister Abiy’s idea and that its agenda was limited to the latest security developments in the two countries.
What Each Side Stands to Gain
Ethiopian forces in Somalia, made up of troops serving under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and others deployed under a bilateral agreement, are concentrated in South West State, Jubaland and Hirshabelle, all of which lie along Somalia’s western border. The current tension in South West State and in Jubaland’s Gedo region makes Ethiopia the main player capable of tipping the balance in Somalia’s internal political contest.
Control of South West State and Gedo is vital to President Hassan Sheikh’s government. On the other side, Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam (Madobe), whom the Federal Government does not recognise, and Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed (Laftagareen), who leads the armed rebellion and considers himself the legitimate president of South West State, where Aden Mohamed Nur (Madobe) now holds office, both depend on Ethiopia’s backing. Baidoa, the capital of South West State, has seen fighting between federal forces and troops loyal to Laftagareen, including clashes on August 17.
Alongside this, the renewed war led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which has spread from Tigray into the Afar and Amhara regions with the support of local armed groups and the Fano militia, together with the dormant Oromo insurgency, has plunged Ethiopia into uncertainty. Abiy, who set his sights on access to the sea and built the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile, is now fighting for political survival. On September 20, the TPLF announced an alliance with six other armed groups aimed at removing Abiy from power.
Ethiopia believes the rebels are backed by Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea, which are at odds with Abiy and, in Addis Ababa’s view, are working together to topple him. This political isolation has pushed Ethiopia to seek help from anyone who can ease the situation, and that is what has made President Hassan Sheikh, who is himself grappling with a crisis at home, important to Abiy.
More from Somalia
Abiy and Hassan: Those Closest to the Fire Feel It Most
One of the diplomats accompanying President Hassan Sheikh, who requested anonymity, told Dawan of remarks Abiy made in haste when he met Hassan at the airport, before the two leaders held closed-door talks. “My brother, talk to the elders. You are taking on too much. [Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea] have resolved to destroy Ethiopia. You cannot imagine where the situation is heading…” Abiy told him, along with other words of complaint, before the greetings were even over.
This suggests Abiy is seeking mediation and wants Somalia to make Ethiopia’s case at the El Alamein meeting, where Ethiopia will be on the agenda. Somalia is not expected to offer Ethiopia weapons or troops, as it is already overstretched itself.
Somalia’s mediation on Ethiopia’s behalf, or at least its decision to stay out of the Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea alliance, will not come for free. Hassan is expected to have made it conditional on Ethiopian forces inside Somalia supporting the Federal Government in operations against armed opposition groups other than Al-Shabaab.
It is a complex political and diplomatic situation in which timing will be decisive. Abiy faces pressure that grows with every day the war at home drags on, hastening the end of his rule. Hassan Sheikh faces pressure that is no less serious: if Gedo and South West State remain in their current state, his position in the election talks with the opposition will weaken.
Somalia’s geopolitical position has handed the government a political card. However the Federal Government chooses to play it, it is a significant development that Somalia now has a role and influence in Ethiopia’s crisis, and that Ethiopia has turned for help to a country whose politics it has long shaped, directly and indirectly.
But that card has value only if it is played in the national interest. If Ethiopian forces are drawn into the political dispute between Mogadishu and the federal member states, Somalia risks becoming an arena for regional rivalries, at a cost far greater than any political gain available today.