The conflict in Dhahar, which erupted in the Sanaag region, is not an isolated event but part of a broader political and territorial dispute that has significant implications for Somalia's federal system.
While the town of Dhahar is constitutionally part of the Haylaan region according to Puntland's constitution, the ongoing violence has escalated tensions between the Puntland administration and SSC-Khaatumo, a new political entity that claims parts of Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn. Here’s what is unfolding alongside the Dhahar conflict:
- SSC-Khaatumo Administration Establishment: On July 13, 2025, a key meeting was held in Laascaanood to finalize the creation of the SSC-Khaatumo regional administration. This event marks the formalization of an administration that directly challenges Puntland's historical control over regions such as Sool and Sanaag. The federal government’s recognition of SSC-Khaatumo is seen as a significant shift in regional governance, raising questions about Puntland’s territorial integrity.
- Puntland's Loss of Territory: Historically, the regions of Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC) have been disputed between Puntland and Somaliland. The emergence of SSC-Khaatumo as a recognized administration challenges Puntland's hold over these areas. This development has the potential to lead to further political and territorial realignments, with Puntland losing control over key regions it had governed.
- Political Fractures and History of Conflict: Puntland has a history of severing ties with the federal government whenever a new regional administration is formed. In the past, this pattern was seen during the creation of Galmudug, where Puntland protested the management of the federal government under then-President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The current situation echoes similar concerns about federal authority and Puntland’s autonomy.
- Federal Government’s Strategic Gains: The inclusion of SSC-Khaatumo as an officially recognized regional administration could strengthen the federal government’s influence, especially in a region that has been a source of conflict. If SSC-Khaatumo’s recognition succeeds, it could give the federal government greater leverage over Puntland and other opposition forces. The balance of power within the country’s regional states would shift, making it a more complex political environment.
- Power-Sharing and the 4.5 System: One of the enduring criticisms of Somalia's current political structure is the 4.5 power-sharing system, which many believe is incomplete. The inclusion of SSC-Khaatumo could provide a temporary resolution to some of these issues, potentially alleviating political opposition and creating a more inclusive system. It could also serve as a model for managing power-sharing arrangements in the country’s federal system.
The ongoing conflict in Dhahar, and the broader political developments surrounding it, represent a critical juncture for Somalia’s federal system. The formation of SSC-Khaatumo may shift political alliances, alter regional governance, and further complicate the delicate balance between the federal government, Puntland, and other regional entities.
