By Benadeta Mwaura - Reporter
Kenya, December 09 2025 -The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), home to roughly 70–75% of the world’s cobalt, has once again made headlines as export restrictions and new quotas for cobalt hydroxide shake global markets.
The restrictions, first imposed as a four-month ban in early 2025 and replaced by a quota system in October, have sent prices soaring and left industry players scrambling. Cobalt hydroxide is a critical material in electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
With soaring global demand for EVs and renewable energy storage, DRC’s policies are being watched closely, not just by multinational corporations, but also by governments and African economies dependent on mining revenues. ‘’Companies want to understand whether the 10% royalty to be paid for export will take into account the amount from the last export (before the ban),” said an industry executive familiar with the regulations, highlighting the uncertainty that exporters face under the new system.
Under the October regime, only 18,125 tonnes of cobalt are allowed for export for the remainder of 2025, with a planned cap of 96,600 tonnes annually from 2026, accompanied by mandatory prepayment of royalties within 48 hours, joint sampling, sealing of export lots, and compliance audits.
These regulatory measures, while aimed at controlling supply and boosting state revenues, have created friction in global supply chains. “Congo’s shifting export rules offer no certainty; last‑minute royalty demands and complex paperwork will keep exports and prices volatile,” said Duncan Hay, a commodity analyst.
The immediate effects are already visible. Glencore, one of the world’s largest cobalt traders, declared force majeure on some deliveries, citing the export restrictions. At the same time, CMOC Group called for a lifting of the ban, reflecting concerns that policy uncertainty could derail existing supply agreements.
“We call on Congo to lift the ban on cobalt exports,” a CMOC representative said, highlighting the tension between government policy and corporate investment expectations.
Ripple Effects Across Global EV Markets
Battery manufacturers and automakers are on high alert. Kwasi Ampofo, a metals and mining analyst at Bloomberg NEF, warned, “Pegging the export quota at 96,000 mt leaves a big gap for automakers and battery manufacturers.” Such a gap in supply could force global players to rethink production plans, invest in alternative battery chemistries like lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP), or accelerate battery recycling efforts.
Price volatility may also filter down to consumers, slowing EV adoption, particularly in cost- sensitive markets including Africa. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence echoed the concern: “By 2027, there is a risk of demand destruction. There is a risk that you won’t have enough material to meet demand.’’
This highlights the tension between global green-energy ambitions and geopolitical realities. While DRC seeks to maximize domestic benefit from its mineral wealth, the restrictions have immediate ripple effects on international supply chains.
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Africa in the Crosshairs
DRC’s cobalt policy does not only impact multinationals. African governments, regional industries, and communities reliant on mining revenues must navigate a delicate balance. Tighter export controls may encourage domestic refining and local value addition. but they also risk incentivizing illegal mining, which historically has brought human rights violations, environmental degradation, and economic losses.
Analysts argue that the export squeeze offers a wake-up call for Africa’s mineral economies to Diversify sources of critical minerals to reduce dependence on DRC, strengthening governance, transparency, and value-addition in mining as well as encouraging regional cooperation to stabilize supply chains and prevent exploitation.
What Comes Next
Looking forward, several factors will determine the trajectory of the cobalt market:
1. Compliance with export quotas: Exporters must navigate the new royalties, certifications, and audits. Any delays or noncompliance could further constrict supply
2. Global battery innovation: Manufacturers may continue shifting toward cobalt-light or cobalt-free batteries if costs and risks remain high.
3. Regional value addition: African countries could seize the opportunity to process more cobalt locally, retaining more revenue and creating jobs.
4. Market stabilization: Only consistent enforcement of export rules, clear communication, and predictable supply will prevent further market panic.
The story of DRC’s cobalt is a cautionary tale about resource nationalism, global interdependence, and the fragile infrastructure supporting the green transition. As one anonymous mining executive put it:
“Companies want clarity, without it, investments are frozen, and the market suffers.” control over resources must be paired with transparency, regional cooperation, and investments in local capacity. Cobalt is not just a mineral, it is a lever for industrialization, economic growth, and technological independence, if Africa can wield it wisely.
