Kenya, 22 October 2025 - China has reclaimed its position as Germany’s top trading partner, dethroning the United States after a brief pause, a shift that underscores how the world’s economic center of gravity continues to move east.
According to official data reported by Reuters, trade between Germany and China reached €163.4 billion in the first eight months of 2025, narrowly surpassing the €162.8 billion recorded with the U.S. This makes China once again Germany’s largest trade partner after losing that title last year for the first time in eight years.
The reversal comes amid an intensifying U.S.–China trade war and renewed tariffs imposed by Washington earlier this year, which have dampened German exports to the American market. In August alone, German exports to the U.S. fell 23.5%, while Chinese imports into Germany jumped 8.3%, pushing total bilateral trade back in Beijing’s favor.
A Changing Global Trade Order
Economists say this shift is not just a trade statistic; it’s a marker of how global supply chains are realigning. The U.S., Europe, and China are now engaged in a complex tug-of-war shaped by tariffs, industrial policy, and technology rivalry.
Germany’s industrial backbone, machinery, automobiles, and chemicals, is particularly exposed. A study by Germany’s IAB Institute warned that a prolonged trade war could shave 1.2% off Germany’s GDP and displace up to 90,000 jobs.
“Europe is being pulled in two directions, geopolitical loyalty to Washington and economic dependency on Beijing,” said Dr. Lukas Meyer, a Berlin-based trade policy analyst.
“This trade swing tells us that decoupling from China is far easier said than done.”
While German exports to China have dipped slightly, imports of low-cost Chinese goods, especially in electric vehicles, batteries, and consumer electronics, have risen sharply.
This has reignited debate in Europe over industrial competitiveness and strategic dependency, as policymakers weigh new trade defenses and subsidy regimes to protect local manufacturers.
The U.S.–China Factor
The rivalry between the world’s two largest economies continues to spill over into Europe. The Trump administration’s new round of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and green tech components, aimed at protecting domestic industries, has deepened tensions. Beijing, in turn, is boosting trade with the European Union, ASEAN, and Africa, using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to secure alternative export routes and raw material access.
“Every trade war leaves winners and losers,” said Professor Elaine Tan, an economist at the National University of Singapore.
“For China, diversifying away from the U.S. market is not just survival, it’s strategy.”
China’s total exports to ASEAN and Africa have surged by double digits since 2023, reflecting its push to expand influence across the Global South as Western markets tighten.
Africa in the Middle of the Global Shift
For Africa, and particularly trade-focused economies like Kenya, South Africa, and Nigeria, this East–West economic realignment presents both opportunities and challenges.
As Europe tightens industrial regulation and the U.S. decouples from Chinese supply chains, Africa could become an alternative production and sourcing hub, especially for critical minerals, agricultural inputs, and light manufacturing.
Kenya’s Lamu Port–South Sudan–Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor, for example, is already being positioned as a gateway for Asian and Middle Eastern trade. Similarly, new Chinese-funded special economic zones in Ethiopia and Tanzania are deepening the continent’s role in global logistics and supply.
However, economists caution that Africa risks being caught in the middle of the U.S.–China rivalry if it fails to coordinate trade policy under frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Looking Beyond the Numbers
China’s renewed dominance in German trade signals more than shifting numbers; it represents the recalibration of global power lines. Europe’s dependence on Chinese imports is rising even as its political leaders call for “de-risking.”
The United States, meanwhile, is doubling down on protectionism, leaving Africa, once peripheral in global trade debates, increasingly central to the supply chain conversation.
For now, Beijing’s quiet resurgence in Europe’s biggest economy shows that in global trade, economics often trumps politics.
And as Africa’s economies expand their manufacturing and digital capacity, they may soon find themselves not just reacting to global trade realignments, but shaping them.
