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MOGADISHU, Somali opposition leader Abdirahman Abdishakur has warned that escalating political tensions risk strengthening Al-Shabaab and drawing Somalia deeper into regional geopolitical rivalries, threatening the country’s security and stability.
In an opinion article titled “Somalia’s Dangerous Convergence: Political Crisis, Insurgency, and Regional Rivalry,” Abdishakur said political disputes were undermining counterterrorism cooperation, weakening state institutions and creating opportunities for foreign interference.
Abdishakur, a member of the opposition Somali Future Council, accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of pursuing contested constitutional amendments and electoral reforms that he said concentrate power in the presidency and undermine political consensus.
He criticised the extension of the presidential term from four to five years and an electoral model that he argued places key institutions under government control, raising concerns about the credibility of future elections.
Pointing to recent fighting in South West State, Abdishakur warned that political disputes were increasingly turning into armed confrontations. He called for an independent investigation into allegations of coordination between forces aligned with ousted regional President Abdiaziz Laftagareen and Al-Shabaab, stressing that the claims remain unproven.
He also questioned the reported use of terrorism-related financial sanctions against Laftagareen and his associates, warning that counterterrorism measures must not be used to settle political disputes.
Abdishakur said Somalia’s internal divisions could expose the country to greater foreign influence as regional powers compete for strategic access to ports, military facilities and maritime routes along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
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He warned that competing external alliances could gradually erode Somalia’s ability to determine its national security priorities, even without a formal change to its sovereignty.
The opposition leader urged political de-escalation, impartial security institutions and an inclusive agreement on constitutional reforms, elections and federal relations.
While acknowledging the opposition’s responsibility to support compromise, Abdishakur said the president bore particular responsibility for preventing political disputes from escalating into security crises.
He concluded that Somalia’s defining challenge was no longer simply who would govern next, but whether the country could establish political rules capable of preserving the state regardless of who holds power.